Trump earned overwhelming support from rural America in 2024, securing a majority in all but 11 of the 444 farming-dependent counties.
This backing came despite the financial fallout from his earlier trade war, which triggered a $23 billion taxpayer-funded bailout for farmers from 2018 to 2019.
Now, unease is once again growing in the agricultural sector.
The current administration slashed already overbooked and underfunded federal climate and conservation programs —initiatives that farmers have long relied on to lower costs, improve yields, reduce emissions, and boost long-term land productivity.
The government also rolled back local food initiatives that once gave farmers access to dependable domestic markets — like school lunch programs and food banks — and dismantled the USAID’s food assistance procurement, which used to purchase about $2 billion worth of US crops like wheat, sorghum, and lentils annually.
Losing these federal support systems was already a blow.
Then came another round of trade disruption: Trump’s tariff announcements hit just as farmers had already planted or committed to inputs for the season, leaving them no room to adjust their crop strategies to match new market conditions.
Experts are warning that these combined pressures may open the door for international competitors while putting US agriculture at risk.
Overview of Trump’s tariffs and trade policy
On his return to office, Trump brought a fresh wave of tariffs that echo the policies he pushed during his first term.
In 2018, he used Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act to impose a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum.
Though initially sparing countries like Canada, Mexico, and the EU, those exemptions were eventually revoked, straining diplomatic and trade relationships with long-standing allies.
Later that same year, the administration imposed tariffs on more than $360 billion worth of Chinese goods under Section 301 of the Trade Act.
In retaliation, China targeted US agricultural exports — especially soybeans, pork, and dairy.
Soybean trade took a direct hit. China, which was once the largest buyer of US soybeans, stopped imports entirely in November 2018.
The year before, they had bought 4.7 million tons during that month alone.
To soften the blow, the administration offered up to $12 billion in aid through the Market Facilitation Program.
But farmers criticized the program for having unclear eligibility requirements and for paying late.
China’s retaliatory measures then expanded to corn, pork, and dairy, shaking up price stability and pushing many producers into difficult financial territory.
Some farmers saw their margins collapse and were forced into bankruptcy.
Fast forward to 2025 and the situation seems to have worsened.
The US raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145% — and China imposed a 125% tariff on US goods to fire back.
This disruptive trade standoff has put even more stress on agricultural exports.
How tariffs affected commodity prices & farm revenues
Key commodity exports fall
- Export sales for soybeans have dropped to an 18-year low. As of mid-April, only 460,000 metric tons had been sold — with none going to China. Brazil has maintained its grip on the Chinese market even with recent production setbacks.
- Although total corn exports for 2024–25 remain strong, early sales for 2025–26 are lagging. Just under 2 million tons have been committed — that’s the second-lowest figure since 2012.
- Wheat sales for 2025–26 currently total only 45 million tons, which is among the lowest in recent years.
- Chinese demand for sorghum remains soft, resulting in minimal estimated export activity for both the current and upcoming marketing years.
Commodity prices hit multi-year lows
- Weaker export demand has also led to oversupply across several key crops. Prices have dropped sharply as more products flood the domestic market.
- Corn and soybeans are now trading at their lowest levels in four years. Farmers say that they are struggling to break even as input prices like seeds, fertilizer, and labor remain high.
- Farm revenues have dropped 23% from 2022 levels — this is one of the steepest annual declines on record. More producers are scaling back operations or exiting the business altogether as margins tighten.
- In response to financial pressures, some farmers are turning to agritourism, such as offering Airbnb accommodations and rural activities to generate additional income. Approximately 7% of US farms now offer farm stays. Still, these alternatives only work for those with the right location and infrastructure — and they don’t replace lost income from large-scale commodity sales.
The ripple effect on agricultural loan markets
Farmers struggle to maintain creditworthiness
By 2025, the combined pressure of weak exports, low crop prices, and expensive inputs has pushed many farmers into financial distress.
Producers are finding it harder to keep up with loan payments as incomes shrink and margins tighten.
Lenders are also reporting more defaults, and many borrowers are now seeking loan restructuring as a way to stay afloat and avoid foreclosure.
Lenders face rising risk
Agricultural lenders — especially rural banks and regional finance providers — are now dealing with higher exposure to risk, causing them to further tighten credit standards.
Getting approved for new loans has become more difficult especially without strong balance sheets or a solid track record.
More farmers are turning to bridge loans and government-backed options through programs as a result.
Lenders are also changing loan conditions to manage exposure, with many asking for more collateral or third-party guarantees before extending credit, or seeking government subsidies to insure loans against potential losses especially in high-volatility sectors like grain and livestock.
Long-term impacts on the agricultural financing ecosystem
The 2025 tariff surge is forcing agricultural lenders to rethink how they assess risk for loans tied to global commodity markets.
Falling exports and weak crop prices have banks increasingly concerned about how stable commodity sales income really is. They are updating their risk models to account for international trade uncertainties.
Commodity-backed loans face more scrutiny
Knowing fully well that sudden policy shifts — like retaliatory tariffs or country-specific bans — can shut down markets overnight, financial institutions are pulling back from loans that depend heavily on export-driven revenue.
Lenders are now encouraging borrowers to diversify their operations, as farms relying on a single export crop face more obstacles when applying for credit.
International investors are also growing wary of US agriculture.
The push to restrict foreign ownership through measures like the FARMLAND Act has further slowed cross-border investment and made foreign capital harder to attract, leaving US agriculture with fewer large-scale funding options.
Conclusion
The agricultural finance sector is moving away from past assumptions about stable export income in the face of new tariff policies.
Lenders are much more conservative in approving loans for export-reliant borrowers, and farmers find themselves having to plan for market and policy instability in ways they haven’t had before.
Both sides need to adopt flexible financial strategies that account for international trade friction and shrinking government support.
If you need help navigating agricultural loan options in today’s volatile environment, contact our expert team of private commercial real estate lenders. Private Capital Investors can provide personalized guidance based on your operation’s needs and financial goals.
Sources
- Intro https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/15/farmers-trump-tariffs-bailout-extreme-weather
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffs_in_the_first_Trump_administration
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_administration_farmer_bailouts
- https://www.axios.com/2018/12/24/trump-trade-war-china-imported-zero-us-soybeans-november
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war
- https://www.ft.com/content/f789de8c-379a-42ed-ad53-38ba05d37000
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/by-numbers-mixed-outlook-key-us-ag-exports-2025-26-braun-2025-04-17
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/recent-strength-us-soy-sales-not-enough-lift-export-prospects-2024-09-20
