Why Commercial Real Estate is in Big Trouble?


Real estate investments, no doubt, are quite attractive. In fact, the availability of the wide number of choices here makes it the perfect option for passive income over a longer period.

However, out of all, commercial real estate is highly in demand, but you must know it also comes with many challenges and complications.

As an investor, you need to understand it all before you make any decision. This will ensure you put your money in the right place and have a better chance of earning better returns.

But you must also know the pandemic has brought a lot of challenges for the industry. It has forced American office workers into their homes.

Adding to it is the rising rates, which have made it complicated for business owners to take office spaces for their needs.

Thus, causing trouble not just for the investors but also for the others involved in the industry. But the investors are at the risk of predicting.

With the demise of office buildings, they have failed to see the larger picture. In fact, another type of income-producing real estate shows a massive paradigm shift, but it has fewer headlines. Check the guide to know more about it.

Commercial real estate is not a rock.

Commercial real estate clearly showcases the picture of glittering skyscrapers located in top metropolitan areas of New York, Hong Kong, etc. They are all loaded with office spaces and men carrying briefcases wearing those perfectly color and ironed shirts.

However, you must know this is the same involvement that has now become endangered.

Since the start of work in the home environment, downtown offices have started to attract a lot of scrutiny because the people who were paid to study the markets and understand them for weak spots are now waiting to work in this type of environment.

When it comes to the weak spots, there is no reason for concern. Offices now comprise 80% of the section under commercial real estate loans, while the occupancy in the major cities is about 50% of the capacity. However, the towers that were once filled with offices now see a different scenario.

One needs to understand the commercial real estate market is quite diverse, big, and regional.

As per NAREIT reports, the US CRE sector is valued at about $20 trillion as of the second quarter of 2021. The entire amount is fairly spread across various sectors.

Offices take about 15% of the market, which will be equivalent to $3.2 trillion. However, since the 1970s, most of the infrastructure has only existed in the suburbs.

This means that the Class A properties that are generally located in densely populated urban areas now compromise half of the office space in the US.

While as of June 2022, the occupancy rate for the office real estate is still under 5. This will take a lot of time to get back to normal.

CRE bigger picture

In the current scenario, the slow development and occupancy of the office segment in the CRE industry is taking all the limelight from another story that is also unfolding in the CRE markets.

Do you remember the biggest CRE category that beats offices by about a few $1000 billion? It is a multifamily residential. In their case, the real estate loans got wobbly primarily for three reasons.

  • In 2021, the developers took out loans for financing new constructions and redeveloping existing ones while the rates were cheap.
  • When it comes to financing for multi-family residential units is always similar to single-family mortgages. This means the interest rate on multifamily mortgages can effectively be reset after a certain period, especially after 2 to 3 years. This means most of the property developers will now enter the race with higher rates.
  • It is seen that more than half of the cash that the property developers borrowed for creating housing stock is now provided by mid-sized and small regional banks.

But the question is, what does all this mean? It means that about $8 trillion tsunami of multifamily commercial mortgage-backed securities is expected to come. It will start during the second half of this year, resulting in a lot of trouble.

What should the firms with commercial real estate loans do now?

The CRE firms who are working have the wave of loan maturity coming towards the shoreline and now have limited choices for refinancing.

As an exception to many of these loans, the regional banks have become a culprit in their risk management practices.

Those banks who used to initiate the loans are now less likely to be making any accommodations or providing concessions.

After all, they all want their money back. Adding to it is that the loans are much more expensive than the previous days.

Some of the firms now can provide pre-existing loans, but the others will have to face the same choices as those with single-family home buyers.

Today, either you have to pay more or borrow from someone else to pay off the debt.

Is it the right time to panic about commercial real estate?

In case you are also a multifamily real estate borrower and have a due date coming soon, then there is a thing to worry about.

However, if you are an investor, then you can stay calm. You must know that Commercial mortgage-backed securities has at least one more backstop, which the agency guarantees.

In the US, generally, commercial bank securities are guaranteed by agencies like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

This means that even in case of default, the government agencies will be the ones who will take responsibility.

While in the case of CMBS, without any agency guarantee, the data still supports various cautions.

So, as far as this year, most of the multifamily borrowers without any government banking will have successfully repaid their loans. However, it will be at a higher interest rate than the rest of the market.


The current scenario of the CRE industry is not strong. In this situation, if you are facing difficulty acquiring financing, then you can consider getting professional support from Private Capital Investors.

They have got the experts who will be helping you choose the best type of deal and get the financing done as soon as possible.

With their support, you will have all the necessary guidance you need for successfully cracking the deal.


Want to learn more? Get in touch with us today.

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