Quick answer
Texas’ commercial real estate can’t be summarized in one statewide headline: activity is substantial everywhere, but investor prospects vary depending on the metro and asset class. Rural land values have also stayed sticky at high levels despite regional data pointing to a more divided market.
Private Capital Investors finances Texas commercial-property and land purchases wherever in Texas you might find the next opportunity.
Parts of rural Texas are seeing rising land values because of energy projects (including solar and oil/gas).
People are also moving to rural areas for lifestyle/recreational land.
There’s palpable buyer resistance in some regions, though, forcing sellers to lower prices or negotiate — and this could create better buying opportunities for investors.
Meanwhile, warehouses and logistics spaces in cities are still strong due to high demand from industries that are still expanding their distribution networks at the moment, particularly e-commerce supply chains.
However, high vacancy rates in office buildings are holding back property values in certain downtowns.
The state of Texas rural land prices
| Region | Q2 2026 price per acre | YoY price change | Investment signal |
| West Texas | $3,008 | 14.29% | Energy and AI-related infrastructure demand |
| Austin–Waco–Hill Country | $8,040 | 8.63% | Strong recreational and homesite demand |
| South Texas | $6,225 | 0.99% | Sales activity rebounding while prices remain stable |
| Gulf Coast–Brazos Bottom | $11,369 | 3.05% | High-priced market with moderating activity |
| Northeast Texas | $8,604 | -5.96% | Price adjustment despite rising sales volumes |
| Panhandle–South Plains | $1,719 | -7.53% | Buyer resistance may improve entry conditions |
Activity has been high in:
- Austin–Waco–Hill Country: Driven by high demand for weekend homes and recreational ranches, pushing total sales dollars and prices per acre to record highs
- West Texas: Gaining strong price growth driven largely by non-agricultural demand such as solar/wind development
Meanwhile, there’s been a noticeable slowdown in:
- The Panhandle: High land prices combined with lower crop prices and higher input costs like fuel and fertilizer have dragged down price growth and transaction volume.
- Northeast Texas: Prices are softening from their previous peaks, and total money spent buying land has declined compared to prior years
Statewide market transition
Texas land prices have stopped surging, giving buyers more bargaining power for the first time in years.
At $5,218 per acre, land prices aren’t falling, but the multi-year post-pandemic trend looks to have officially leveled off.
Prices are up only 3.27% year-over-year, which means real price appreciation (after factoring in inflation) has slowed.
Liquidity
“People are buying land in smaller chunks in Texas, so while more deals are closing, fewer total acres and less total money are changing hands,” explained Keith Thomas, CEO of Private Capital Investors.
Transaction counts rose 4.34% year over year to 3,753 sales. Yet total acres sold fell 12.57%. Total dollar volume also declined 9.72%.
Long-term context
Texas rural land’s five-year annualized price growth slowed to 8.17%. Growth remains substantial by historical standards, but it has declined from the double-digit rates seen in previous years.
The statewide figures make a broad land-price-growth strategy less convincing.
Returns may now depend more heavily on choosing regions with specific demand drivers, such as energy development, recreational demand, or residential expansion.
West Texas
West Texas land prices are hitting record highs because energy projects and tech infrastructure like AI data centers are competing with traditional farming and ranching for space:
- Record prices (+14.29%): Land values surged to an all-time high of $3,008 per acre
- Higher cash volume (+10.32%): A total of $229.26 million was spent on West Texas land sales
Austin–Waco–Hill Country
This region wasn’t affected by the statewide slowdown.
- Price growth (+8.63%): Average land value reached $8,040 per acre
- Lifestyle demand: Buyers continued to pay for acreage within reach of Austin and Waco, particularly land suited to second homes or recreation.
People seem to be paying for a version of rural life that is still connected to the city, which can keep prices higher even when agricultural economics are less favorable.
South Texas
“Land sales in this part of Texas are booming in terms of deal volume. Prices have stayed nearly flat, though, so the market could become ideal for cautious, risk-averse investors,” explained Keith.
- Transaction surge (+26.18%): Deal activity jumped to 400 completed sales compared to the previous year
- Flat pricing (+0.99%): Despite the surge in sales, land values stayed virtually unchanged at $6,225 per acre
- Higher dollar volume (+7.77%): Total cash spent in the region went up simply because so many more properties changed hands
Between late 2023 and mid-2025, South Texas experienced a slump with low buyer activity.
The current spike in sales indicates that buyers are back in the market, but because prices haven’t surged yet, the market has stabilized rather than overheated.
“South Texas might be a sweet spot for buyers who want proof that liquidity and buyer interest have returned to the region,” Keith added. “You aren’t paying a steep premium or chasing a price bubble, because per-acre land costs remain steady at previous levels.”
Gulf Coast–Brazos Bottom
Land in the Gulf Coast–Brazos Bottom region is holding onto its near-record price tags. Fewer total acres are changing hands, though,
- Near-record Pricing ($11,369 / acre): Land values rose 3.05%, remaining at the top of the state’s pricing scale (compared to West Texas at $3,008/acre)
- Lower cash volume (-3.49%): Total money spent across the region dropped to $214.74 million
- Fewer acres sold (-6.35%): Total physical land acreage bought in the region shrank
“When prices sit near all-time highs while total sales volume and total acres sold drop, it indicates a high-priced equilibrium,” said Keith. “Sellers aren’t discounting, so asking prices remain firmly pegged at elevated levels.
At the same time, buyers are hesitating. Because at over $11,000 per acre, when you think about it, generic pasture or farmland is no longer an attractive standalone investment yield.”
“Investors can’t buy land here expecting double-digit price appreciation every year, automatically,” he added.
“A purchase at these prices must be justified by a specific value driver such as immediate commercial development potential or proximity to major highway corridors.
Water/mineral rights also can give a basic tract a second source of value.”
Northeast Texas
Land prices in Northeast Texas dropped around 6%.
The number of completed sales actually rose by nearly 10%, however, indicating that the market is adjusting to realistic prices that buyers are willing to pay.
Per-acre prices dropped (-5.96%): Prices corrected down to $8,604 per acre from higher previous peaks
887 transactions closed
Total dollars spent fell (-11.26%): Total money moving through the region dropped because prices per acre were lower and buyers bought smaller overall parcels.
Deal activity jumped (+9.64%):
“When prices drop while sales volume increases, it shows a market finding its footing,” Keith explained. “Northeast Texas could therefore offer solid value-buying opportunities.
But before investing, be sure to determine what is driving demand in that specific county — whether it’s DFW suburban expansion, rural housing, timber/ag production, or weekend recreational buyers.”
Panhandle–South Plains
The sharpest market slowdown in Texas happened in this region.
- Prices dropped (-7.53%): Land values dropped to $1,719 per acre (the cheapest land price among all Texas regions covered)
- Total dollars spent collapsed (-25.36%): Cash volume plunged by over a quarter, down to $79.98 million
- Land sold shrank (-19.28%): Physical acreage bought dropped by nearly 20%
Prices notably sat around $1,800/acre for almost two years.
Eventually, buyers pushed back: they realized that high interest rates combined with much elevated farm input costs and lower crop prices meant land couldn’t generate enough agricultural return.
Texas CRE is growing, but conditions vary by market
Commercial real estate is a major part of the Texas economy, contributing $203.4 billion in 2025 and supporting more than 1 million jobs.
The industry also generated $63.2 billion in wages and salaries, according to NAIOP. $59.39 billion went directly into tenant improvements and planning/soft costs across the state.
But of course, that growth looks completely different depending on which Texas metro area you look at:
| Texas CRE market | Market scale and/or demand signal | What it could mean for investors |
| Dallas–Fort Worth | 1.22 billion sq ft of industrial space; 919,082 multifamily units; population growth of 2.05% in 2026 | The state’s largest CRE market, with depth across industrial, multifamily, retail, and office |
| Houston | 853.8 million sq ft of industrial space; industrial vacancy of 7.2%; office vacancy of 19.6% in 2025 | Industrial property may have firmer fundamentals than office assets |
| Austin | 172.4 million sq ft of industrial space; 331,158 multifamily units; positive office absorption of 214,383 sq ft in Q4 2025 | Demand extends across several asset types, although investors should test submarket-level supply and rents |
Varying industrial CRE dynamics by region
Texas industrial demand strengthened through 2026. The supply cycle varies, with the balance between newly built industrial space and tenant demand differing in each city.
Notably
- Tenants are filling space faster than new buildings are opening in Dallas–Fort Worth.
- In San Antonio, the amount of excess space available is beginning to decline.
- And in Austin, many new buildings are still vacant.
| Market | Latest market reading | Investment implication |
| Dallas–Fort Worth | 17.9 million sq ft of net absorption in the first half of 2026; vacancy fell to 9.3% | Strong occupier demand is reducing available warehouse space |
| Houston | 11.9 million sq ft of net absorption in the first half of 2026 | A major industrial market with sustained demand from manufacturing and logistics users |
| San Antonio | Q3 leasing rose to 2.91 million sq ft; vacancy fell to 10.3%; asking rents rose 5.0% year over year | Market conditions are firmer than the earlier oversupply narrative suggests |
| Austin | Q3 net absorption reached 1.22 million sq ft, but 918,000 sq ft of new space entered the market, nearly all vacant | Leasing has recovered, though high vacant supply still gives tenants more choice |
In Dallas–Fort Worth, industrial-demand signals are strong.
Tenants absorbed 17.9 million square feet in the first half of this year 2026 — that’s more than any other industrial market in the US.
Vacancy also fell to 9.3%. There’s still plenty of new warehouse space under construction, and even then, demand has exceeded deliveries.
Well-located facilities here will likely maintain strong leasing prospects, with less competition from immediately available space.
Another major industrial market, Houston posted 11.9 million square feet of net absorption in the first half of 2026.
Investors here have access to a wide tenant base in the manufacturing/distribution as well as energy-related sectors.
That said, Houston is a large and varied market; conditions are not necessarily similar in every submarket.
Before committing capital, investors should assess local construction activity and transport access, along with the types of tenants competing for space.
In San Antonio, Q3 leasing reached 2.91 million square feet and net absorption rose to 796,000 square feet. Overall vacancy also fell to 10.3%.
Demand seems to have started reducing the amount of available space: asking rents increased 5.0% year over year, making conditions more favorable for existing industrial assets. Vacancy is still high enough for tenants to retain some negotiating power, however.
The industrial market in Austin is recovering. Net industrial absorption reached 1.22 million square feet in Q3.
Year-to-date leasing also rose to 9.77 million square feet. However, asking rents fell 2.1% year over year as 918,000 square feet of new industrial space entered the market during the quarter (nearly all of it was vacant).
Arrange financing for your next CRE deal in Texas
Private Capital Investors offers CRE Loans as well as Ag and Land Loans for Texas investors and developers. Contact us at 972-865-6205 or tell us more about your deal here.
