Florida’s Commercial Real Estate Market Outllok

Quick answer

Florida’s economy reached $1.8 trillion and ranks 14th globally, and real estate reportedly contributes nearly $473.7 billion, or more than one-quarter of state GDP. Growth is continuing but moderating. For CRE investors, there are opportunities in both farmland and commercial properties.

Florida stood out from the national farmland trend

According to the USDA, US farm real estate values averaged $4,500 per acre this year, up by a relatively modest but steady 3.4% from last year.

Cropland values rose 3.3% to $6,020 per acre. Pasture values also increased 4.2% to $2,000 per acre. These figures include land and farm buildings.

Prices have been rising for a while, and they are continuing to rise, but the growth is cooling down compared to last year.

Florida kept more momentum than the country as a whole. This year, cropland in the state averaged $11,100 per acre, which is 84% above the US average of $6,020 per acre.

Florida cropland became 5.2% more expensive than it was last year; the entire US average only grew by 3.3% as mentioned, which means Florida grew almost 58% faster.

That put its growth rate second among the states cited, behind Tennessee.

Florida’s average cropland value also exceeded those of major Corn Belt producers (including Iowa and Illinois).

“Of course, these are national averages, and being averages, they don’t show the pricing differences hidden within a state average.

Many other factors fade from view when you look at just top-level trends.

Water access, productive capacity, permitted uses, location, and development pressure all weigh on pricing and lead to sharply different prices between counties, or sometimes even neighboring parcels,” explains Keith Thomas, founder of Private Capital Investors.

Development rights and productivity are more accurate indicators of land values

Based on the figures above, farmland prices barely beat inflation, so buying land just hoping the price keeps going up might not be the best strategy anymore.

Investors need to make sure the land (1) generates good rental/crop income, and (2) that its legal standing is solid.

“Land traits don’t always add up cleanly, either,” Keith explained. “What makes a property great for one purpose might make it useless or overpriced for another.”

If a piece of land has steady water and generates strong crop income, it’s valuable to someone who wants to farm it for the long haul.

If land can be turned into housing or solar farms, it can command a much higher price tag based on future construction,” he added.

There’s also the matter of the land’s legal ceiling, as conservation easements — which are legal agreements that permanently restrict how land can be used, usually prohibiting development to protect nature — apply in Florida.

Even if you can still technically farm the acreage, if that development potential is lost, developers looking to build housing or solar projects might not see the same upside.

Note that Florida also has a Rural and Family Lands Protection Program: the state essentially buys the development rights from farmers.

The farmers get paid, keep owning and working the land, but legally agree never to turn it into subdivisions and other non-farm developments such as shopping centers.

The program has successfully protected over 247,000 acres of farm and ranch land across Florida using these permanent agreements.

Florida’s retail boom hasn’t loosened the market

Florida is building new shopping spaces at a vastly higher rate than the rest of the country relative to its existing size.

The state holds about 11% of the country’s existing retail inventory.

Over a quarter of all retail space (26%) that finished construction nationwide in the first half of 2026 was built here.

Despite all that new development activity, occupancy still stayed exceptionally high at 96.2%.

Asking rents even rose 2.1% year over year to an average of $35.17 per square foot.

Businesses are continuing to rent commercial space in Florida because of three main tailwinds:

• Steady influxes of new residents, which create a constant demand for new grocery stores, restaurants, gyms, and local services
• Heavy tourist spending, which pumps extra money into retail shops/restaurants and entertainment venues
• The removal of commercial lease tax in late 2025 (which was unique to Florida), lowering operating costs for businesses leasing storefronts and offices and making space significantly more affordable to rent.

Caveat: Retail investment activity varies depending on the local market

All that said, retail investment activity varied widely across Florida’s major markets.

 During the first half of 2026, retail transaction volume rose in:

• Tampa
• Orlando
• Palm Beach

It fell in:

• Miami
• Jacksonville
• Broward County

Notably, Tampa recorded the largest increase in transaction volume. Palm Beach had the lowest vacancy rate among the markets reported.

Florida commercial listings show large entry-price differences by asset type

What do these figures tell us?

That Miami is the most expensive: it tops the state for asking prices across office, retail, and industrial.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville is the most affordable, with the lowest asking prices in Florida across all three property categories.

Notably, industrial space in Miami averages $765 per square foot, which is more than 3.5 times higher than Jacksonville ($214 per square foot).

In terms of the largest average office buildings for sale, Orlando is the leader, and Jacksonville has the largest average industrial facilities (warehouses/logistics centers) for sale. 

Deep dive: South Florida is not uniformly ‘hot’

South Florida’s strong commercial-property sales ($16 billion in 2025, the highest annual total since 2017) don’t necessarily indicate that every type of property is carrying the same pricing power.

• Tenants were mostly signing leases in higher-quality buildings. This helped sustain premium rents in Miami-Dade and West Palm Beach.
• In retail, vacancy stayed exceptionally low (at about 3% to 3.5%).
• New supply changed the picture in industrial. Vacancy rose from 4.8% to 5.7% by late 2025 as more industrial space entered the market.
• In multifamily, demand is still very strong. Over 94% of apartments are filled with paying tenants, meaning there isn’t a widespread vacancy crisis. That said, a flood of new apartment construction finished at the same time, and because renters had so many new options to choose from, landlords lost their leverage to hike prices, keeping rent growth practically flat (0.5%).

Activity in Central Florida

Closed deals (detailed in this Colliers report) measure actual money spent buying retail property in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period a year earlier:

• Tampa (+161%) & Orlando (+89%): Retail property sales exploded in these markets.
• Jacksonville (-17%): Buying activity dropped off, indicating that investors were more hesitant.

Asking prices (based on LoopNet’s October 2026 active-listing data), meanwhile, measured what sellers are asking for listed properties.

Miami topped the state with much higher asking prices per square foot. Jacksonville had significantly lower asking prices per square foot across all property types.

Financing CRE deals in Florida

No matter where in Florida your next commercial deal is located, Private Capital Investors can help line up financing.

We offer:

Contact us at 972-865-6205.